How to read the map: what each pattern is measured to mean
Most gamma commentary names shapes and moves on. We named ours, then graded every one of them against the control almost nobody runs: not 'how often did this level hold' but 'how often did it hold compared with any level the same distance from price'. Four of the seven descriptions turned out to be wrong, including one that meant the reverse of what it said. Here is what each pattern is measured to mean.
The map tells you HOW MUCH, not which way
Graded on next-day direction, every pattern reads about 52% higher. So does a board with no pattern at all, because equities drift up. Benchmark a direction rate against 50% instead of that baseline and you manufacture an edge that is not there.
Where the patterns genuinely separate is dispersion. Ordered by the range that followed, across a five-year split: the Vise ran about 1.1%, the Lid, Bookends and Fortress about 1.8%, a board with no pattern about 2.0%, Live Wire about 2.2%, and Open Water about 2.4% — the ordering held in both halves of the sample.
That is the read in one sentence: the name tells you how much price is likely to move, not which way it goes.
The Lid: the strongest thing on the map
A hard cap overhead with amplifying gamma underneath. The cap went unbroken about 84% of following sessions against about 74% for any level the same distance out, across 70,562 boards, in both halves of the sample.
It is also the only pattern edge that survives inside the session — six points or more over the next two hours. Every other level edge we found is an overnight effect.
The Fortress means the opposite of what it looks like
One strike dwarfing the board looks like a destination. It is the reverse. Price touched a dominant node about 23% of following sessions against about 35% for any level the same distance away, on 50,653 boards — and the same repulsion shows up intraday.
The mechanism is the one that runs through this whole map: heavy structure damps movement. Size that big is a reason the session stays quiet and stays away, not a magnet pulling price in.
The Vise is not a box, and Bookends are not intraday levels
The Vise marks the narrowest range we measure. It does not contain price: over five years, price finished between the two nodes under 2% of the time. It is a speed reading, not a boundary.
Bookends' upper edge holds about 78% of the next session against about 71% matched — but that edge does not reproduce intraday, where it inverts between halves. Read Bookends as overnight reference, not as levels to trade against during the day.
The midpoint between two nodes is not a level either. Neither is the node: asked whether price turned back once it reached them, both came in at about 51%, which is a coin flip.
Two more shapes are stand-down reads. The Whipsaw is a wide bracket — two heavy edges with a void between: the edges are where hedging absorbs and the invalidation is tight, and mid-range there is nothing to be right against. Rainbow Road is nodes of both signs scattered with nothing dominant: structure everywhere and none of it holds. Both are the map saying no, for opposite reasons.
What moves the odds is clearance, not size
Whether price reaches the heaviest node has almost nothing to do with how big that node is, and a great deal to do with what stands in the way. Measured during market hours on thirteen months of five-minute bars, a clear run has been reached about one and a half times as often as a blocked one at the same distance — a level within one percent was reached about 56% of following sessions when clear against about 40% when a node of real size stood in between. The gap holds across five distance buckets in both halves of the sample.
That is why the map now reads the path rather than the target.
The one directional line
Where the size SITS predicts nothing. Where the book is being WRITTEN does. When exposure above price grew relative to below over the prior half hour, price traded higher thirty minutes later about 58% of the time against about 48% when the tilt ran the other way — measured across 27 sessions with the prior move held flat, so it is not momentum in disguise.
Against a 52% baseline that is roughly a five-point edge, and it fades by the hour mark. It is real, it is thin, and it is the only direction claim on the map.
| Pattern | What it means | Measured |
|---|---|---|
| The Lid | Cap overhead holds; drift beneath it | ~84% vs ~74% matched; holds intraday too |
| Fortress | Price stays AWAY from the dominant node | Touched ~23% vs ~35% matched |
| Bookends | Overnight reference, not intraday levels | Cap ~78% vs ~71%; inverts intraday |
| The Vise | Slowest sessions — but not a container | ~1.1% range; inside under 2% of the time |
| Live Wire | Amplifying structure at price; size down | ~2.2% range |
| Open Water | Nothing big enough to lean on | ~2.4% range — the widest state |
| Springboard | Floor below, thin edge, rare shape | Floor holds ~71% vs ~68%; 0.3% of boards |
| Whipsaw | Two heavy edges, void between — edges only | Mechanism read: never initiate mid-range |
| Rainbow Road | Both signs scattered, nothing dominant | Stand down — a chop tape, not a setup |
Common questions
Does the biggest node pull price toward it?
No. Measured against a distance-matched control it repels: touched about 23% of sessions versus about 35% for an arbitrary level the same distance away. Heavy structure damps movement rather than attracting it.
Is the midpoint between two nodes a support level?
No, and neither is the node. Conditional on price reaching them, both turned price back about 51% of the time — indistinguishable from chance. A node's measurable value is range compression, not reversal.
Can the map tell me which way price is going?
Only in one narrow sense. Growth of exposure above price relative to below predicted a higher price thirty minutes later about 58% of the time against about 48% the other way. Everything else on the map describes how much price moves, not the direction.
Read the pattern name as a speed limit, not a direction. Two shapes carry a measured edge — the Lid, whose cap holds on both clocks, and the Fortress, which repels rather than attracts. Everything else describes how much the session is likely to move.
Keep reading
See it on a live board
FlowMonkey prices every level by whether your ticker can actually reach it today — measured on that symbol's own range, re-sorted as the session burns down.
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