SHY expected move
From the closing options book · October 20, 2026 · updated after every close
With at-the-money implied volatility of 3.7% at the October 20, 2026 close, SHY's options priced a move of ±$0.19 (0.23%) over one session, ±$0.42 over a week and ±$0.87 over a month from the 81.30 close.
SHY daily move vs the one-day expected move, last 30 sessions
Over the last 58 sessions, SHY's next close stayed inside the prior day's one-day expected move 57 times (98%).
The expected move is the at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the horizon: close × IV × √(days ÷ 252). It is what the options market charged for, not a guarantee; a one-standard-deviation range holds roughly two days in three.
These are the October 20, 2026 closing numbers. Members see SHY's map move live all session.
Common questions
±$0.19 (81.11 to 81.49), from the October 20, 2026 close.
±$0.42, a range of 80.88 to 81.72.
From at-the-money implied volatility (3.7%): close × IV × √(days ÷ 252).
Compare: expected move on other tickers
Measured from the closing options book and rebuilt after every close. Nothing on this page is live. Levels are where dealer hedging is concentrated, not targets or forecasts. Not investment advice.